The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) is entering a phase of structural transformation. The « Fit for 55 » reform imposes a drastic reduction in the supply of allowances, creating an organized scarcity. Although prices have stabilized around €80-85/t in 2025 due to a low industrial production, the underlying trend remains bullish. Analyst consensus anticipates a return towards €100/t, with high-end forecasts reaching €149/t by 2030.
For industrial players, the challenge is no longer just administrative compliance, but economic viability in the face of the progressive disappearance of free allowances. This report analyses market fundamentals and offers a roadmap to transform this regulatory constraint into a strategic opportunity.